Expected Value and Critical Rationalism with Vaden Masrani and Ben Chugg

Vaden and Ben, hosts of the podcast Increments, join Nick for a heated debate friendly discussion on the expected value/subjective probability style of reasoning used in the EA community, their alternative approach of critical rationalism, and how this disagreement effects the EA project of trying to do the most good.

Episode transcript.

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Other Links:

• Increments, Vaden and Ben's podcast
• The Bayesian Mindset by Holden Karnofsky
• Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics by Andrew Gelman and Cosma Shalizi
• Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
• Our guests:
  • Vaden's personal website
  • Ben's personal website